Knight Frank has presented price forecast for the world's major luxury real estate markets

What has happened? The international company Knight Frank has published its forecasts for the luxury real estate markets of 26 cities around the world for 2023 and 2024.

Rating. Of the 26 cities tracked, Dubai still leads the rankings for 2023, although annual growth is expected to cool to a less frothy 14%, down from 44% last year.

Tokyo, Paris, Madrid and Miami, all forecast to see 4% growth in 2023, complete the top five.

In Tokyo, persistently low interest rates and strengthening overseas interest explain the positivity, in Miami, low taxes, relative value and Latin demand are the key factors. Whilst for Paris and Madrid a lack of prime stock is cushioning prices.

Dynamics. Of the 26 cities monitored, six are expected to perform better than that predicted six months ago, nine remain the same, and the remaining eleven are expected to have weaker price increases.

Forecasts for Geneva and Vancouver have improved the most in percentage point terms, while those for the cities of Berlin, Edinburgh, Dublin, Los Angeles, Zurich and Lisbon have deteriorated the most, although the difference remains relatively small at between 2% to 4%.

Forecast for 2024. Auckland and Mumbai lead the 2024 outlook, both forecasting 5% growth over a 12-month period. Auckland is entering recovery mode after having seen prime prices dip 17% since their peak in the third quarter of 2021.

Auckland and Mumbai lead the forecast for 2024, both tipped to see 5% growth over the 12-month period. Auckland is moving into recovery mode

Meanwhile, in Mumbai, improved GDP and infrastructure investment will push prices higher, while in Singapore (+4%), demand will continue to outpace supply.

Madrid (+4%), Paris (+3%) and Dublin (+2.5%) are expected to be the top performers due to lack of luxury stock and relative economic strength.

Source: Knight Frank

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